Sunday, 29 August 2010

EUROPA LEAGUE OPPONENTS

Steaua Bucureşti
Last season: Finished 4th in tight Romanian league title race behind champions Cluj, Unirea (who Liverpool met last season) and Vaslui.

This season: Currently 2nd in Liga I, level on points with leaders and city rivals Dinamo Bucharest. Qualified for the group stages by beating Grasshoppers Zurich on penalties after two 1-0 home wins.

Manager: Former Spurs and West Ham forward Ilie Dumitrescu, a Steaua legend who began and ended his playing career there. Took over recently from experienced former Romanian boss Victor Piturca. Dumitrescu has already had 13 jobs (mainly in Cyprus and Greece) so far in his nine year managerial career. Gained a reputation in Greece as a conservative coach who builds team on strong defence, often with two deep lying midfielders to cover the defence.

Key players: Steaua's Greek striker Pantelis Kapetanos featured at the World Cup and usually leads the line in a 4-2-3-1 system. In his third season in Romania, he has been their top scorer in both his previous campaigns. However, arguably their star player is Bogdan Stancu, 23, who plays in the hole behind Kapetanos. He contributes goals and creativity and is in excellent form with 5 goals in 6 pre-season games, having just broken into the Romania squad.

Alongside him in attacking midfield, Romanian international wingers Banel Nicolita (stripped of the club captaincy following some poor performance) and new skipper Cristian Tanase.

At the back, Nigerian fullback Emeghara (capped 3 times by his country) and Portuguese defender Geraldo Alves (older brother of international Bruno) boast European experience.

Possible side (4-2-3-1): Tatarusanu~; Latovlevici~, Geraldo, Abrudan, Emeghera; Angelov*, Stoica*; Tanase (c)*, Stancu*, Nicolita*; Kapetanos*.(*internationals/~U21)


FC Utrecht
Last season: Finished 7th in Eredvisie and qualified via the unique Dutch play-off system, where 6th to 9th placed teams play semis and finals for a spot in the Europa League qualifiers.

This season: Overturned a 2-0 defeat at Celtic with an emphatic 4-0 win in Utrecht. Currently 10th in Eredivisie after 5 games, following defeats to Feyenoord and champions Twente.

Manager: Ton du Chatinier, spent his entire playing career there and then has been youth team boss, assistant manager and now first team boss since 2008.

Key players: Experienced Danish midfielder Michael Silberbauer will face his international teammates Daniel Agger and Christian Poulsen. Striker Van Wolfswinkel was the hero against Celtic with a hat-trick.

Utrecht have two Aussie internationals: midfielder Michael Zullo and forward Thomas Oar. Ghanaian left winger Nana Asare and Dutch youngster Barry Maguire (whose Irish father earned him a call-up to Ireland's Under 21s, which he refused) are other names to look out for.

Possible team: (4-4-2): Vorm*, Nesu*/Lensky~, Vuytens/Dickoh, Schut/Keller, Cornelisse; Asare*, Silberbauer*, Maguire, Mertens; van Wolfswinkel, Oar*/Mulenga*.


S.S.C. Napoli
Last season: Finished 6th in Serie A last year, their highest finish for 16 years following a couple of spells in the lower leagues following a slump in form and bankruptcy in 2004.

This season: Qualified by beating Swedish side Elfsborg home and away, 3-0 on aggregate. Drew 1-1 at Fiorentina on the opening weekend of the Serie A season with a goal from new signing Edinson Cavani.

Manager: Walter Mazzarri, former Sampdoria boss, guided his former side to the round of 32 in 2008/09's UEFA Cup. He guided them to 3rd in the group stages behind Standard Liege and Stuttgart but above Sevilla. Suprisingly, Samp crashed out 3-0 to Ukraine's Metalist Kharkiv and despite reaching the Coppa Italia final, he was sacked and was then appointed Napoli boss last summer.

Key players: Napoli have a rich tradition of South American superstars (Maradona, Careca, Fonseca) which is being continued through Argentine winger Ezequiel Lavezzi (linked last summer with Liverpool) and record signing Uruguayan midfielder Edinson Cavani, fresh from an impressive display at the World Cup.

Alongside them Slovakian wonderkid Marek Hamsik has grabbed attention from scouts across Europe with his immense technical ability and spectacular goals. He will look forward to going head-to-head with compatriot Martin Skrtel.

At the back, former Reds fullback Andrea Dossena is showing better form in his preferred role as a wing-back in an attacking 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 formation.

Possible team (3-4-3): de Sanctis*; Aronaca, P. Cannavaro~, Campagnaro; Dossena*, Yebda*/Gargano*, Blasi/Pazienza, Maggio*; Lavezzi*, Cavani*, Hamsik*.


GROUP PREDICTIONS
LFC bt Steaua H, Utrecht H/A, draw Napoli H/A, Steaua A. Pts 12.
Napoli bt Steaua H, Utrecht H/A, draw LFC H/A, Steaua A. Pts 12.
Steaua bt Utrecht H, drew LFC H, Napoli H, lost LFC, Napoli, Utrecht A. Pts 5.
Utrecht bt Steaua H, lost LFC H/A, Napoli H/A, Steaua A. Pts 3.

Tuesday, 6 July 2010

TRANSFER TARGETS FOR DEL-ROY TROTTER

According to Andy Hunter in The Guardian, Roy Hodgson must sign at least five players: a left-back, centre-half, two wingers and a striker. I would add a central midfielder to the wanted list to replace or give back-up to Mascherano and Lucas.

With an initial reported £12-15m kitty and another potential £20m+ to come in potential sales of fringe players, here's a guide to who has been linked so far this summer...


Left-back: With Aurelio gone and Insua on verge of move to Italy.
- Reto Ziegler, 24, £5m, 6ft Swiss fullback who moved to Spurs at 18 but couldn't hold down a place has broken into side at Sampdoria. Scored twice and got 5 assists in 31 games last season, the best of his career. He speaks English and would settle without too much hassle. In the last year of his contract, Samp want to extend his deal after interest from several clubs (Zenit, Fiorentina, Liverpool). ****

- Maynor Figueroa, 27, £5m, could prove even more expensive as former boss Steve Bruce at Sunderland will aim for his signature. Also would jet off to Central America for internationals: meaning he would be tired or have to be rested, ruining any continuity in selection. ***

- Taye Taiwo, 24, £6m, pacey Nigerian has been linked to Liverpool frequently over recent windows and despite his tender age is experienced (230 first team games already!). In final year of deal with Marseille, Taiwo submitted a transfer request following a bid from Atlético Madrid and interest from Premier League clubs. Quick, strong and English-speaking - he'd be ideal for Premiership. Only drawback is absence during African qualifiers and African Nations' Cup. ****

- Royston Drenthe, 23, £4m/loan: Dutch youngster adept at full-back or in midfield, behind Marcelo in pecking order and apparently surplus to requirements for new Real Madrid boss Mourinho who is looking at Peruvian Juan Vargas as his replacement. May go on loan to Portugal or Lazio to replace City-bound Kolarov. Surely worth a punt on given the lack of left-backs? ***

- Wayne Bridge, 30, £6m: Inexplicably rated as the second best English left back. Bridge is out of favour at Man City this season after City's £16m signing of Aleksandr Kolarov. Decent footballer but lack of size and tactical awareness means he is prone to defensive lapses. **
- Marcell Jansen,

Centre-back: strong in air and mobile enough to cope with pace of Premiership.
- Danny Wilson, 18, £2m: Scottish Young Player of the Year, signed from Rangers. Left-footed, athletic with massive potential. Fee could rise to £5m depending on his success. **** SIGNED!


Centre midfielder as back-up/alternative to Gerrard/Aquilani
- Joe Cole, 28, free, technically gifted but out of contract after rejecting a new deal. Has had his share of injuries but there's no question over his talent and creativity. **** SIGNED!!


Or cover/replace Mascherano or Lucas:
- Gilberto Silva, 33, free, experienced holding midfielder, who held together a fragile Brazil midfield well at World Cup. Lack of mobility not a problem for a player of such tactical discipline. Ready-made deputy or replacement for Mascherano. Would adapt well as he speaks English, knows the league (a 2004 Premier League champion with Arsenal). ****

- Mahamadou Diarra, 29, £5m, The Malian midfielder signed in 2006 by Real (ahead of Man Utd) for £26m is likely to be surplus to requirements. Was a stalwart in back-to-back La Liga titles under Capello and Schuster until a serious knee injury ruled him out long-term and his namesake Lassana was signed as his replacement. Returned to form and fitness last year but found himself behind Lass and (inexplicably) Gago. Worth a punt for a player who was one of Europe's best midfielders just three years ago. ****

- Lassana Diarra, 25, £10m: Frenchman signed for £20m by Real but Mourinho let a teenage Diarra leave Chelsea for a nominal fee to Arsenal. Interesting to see if he's retained in The Special One's shake up. Didn't feature in World Cup due to blood condition exacerbated by exercise at altitude. Gerrard would tell you what an athlete he is as he man-marked him to great effect over the years in his spells at Arsenal, Chelsea and Portsmouth. ****

- Christian Poulsen. 30, £5m: No-nonsense Danish midfielder who made his name under Hodgson at FC Copenhagen. He then moved to Germany where he won the UEFA Cup and Super Cup in his four-year spell. His next club was Sevilla where he won the Copa del Rey and was named in La Liga's Team of the Year which earned him a €9.75m move to Juventus. He hasn't been a regular since Claudio Ranieri's departure. At 30, would have little sell-on value but a player Hodgson knows well and nutured to prominence in his early career. ***


Left/right wingers to replace Riera/Benayoun:
- Gervinho, 23, £10m, prolific Ivorian left-footed forward at Lille, 13 in 32 games last season including 8 in 10 Europa League ties. Man of the Match v Portugal in World Cup but largely overlooked by Eriksson as he adopted a pragmatic approach despite the wealth of attackers in his squad. Great potential and possesses qualities required to succeed at top level. ****

- Eljero Elia, 23, £10m, pacey Hamburg winger, can play either flank, similar to Babel but more skilful. Can Roy get best out of Babel instead? Or can he offload him and bid for Elia? ***

- Arda Turan, 23, £10m, Galatasaray captain and Liverpool "fan" linked with Arsenal and Spurs, 25 goals in 44 games in 09/10 including 8 goals in 10 Europa League matches but could he settle in England? ***

- Shaun Wright-Phillips, 28, £6m, out of contract next June, despite an excellent start to season lost his place to Adam Johnson and is available. Although City unlikely to sell to a rival. **

Striker to cover/partner Torres:
- Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, 27, £15m: Dutch striker who has been compared to van Basten, who himself described "The Hunter" and played a useful cameo in Holland's run to the World Cup final with the winner against Cameroon, his 16th goal in 26 internationals. Many would overlook his record in Holland (even Afonso Alves scored tons there!) but despite not being a regular, scored 8 goals in 20 games for Real Madrid and 7 in 25 at a struggling AC Milan. Speaks English and would settle in nicely alongside Dutch team-mates Kuyt and Babel. ****

- Bryan Ruiz, 24, £12m, Costa Rican 24 goals in 34 games to win Dutch title for Steve McClaren. Unproven at top level so could be very risky investment of £10m+ on a player who has performed well over one season in a minor league. ***

- Peter Crouch, 29, £10m, Cult hero on the Kop but unlikely to turn his back on the Champions League football he secured with a scrappy winner at Man City in May. Linked with a move after Redknapp is apparently keen to sign ANOTHER striker this summer. ****

On the move? (£45m, bold players confirmed sales): Mihalyov £1.5m, San Jose £2.5m, Insua £5m, Skrtel £7m, Krygiakos £2m, Darby/Spearing combined £3m, Riera £4m, Ngog £5m, El Zhar/Plessis combined £2m, Babel £8m...Degen 50p?
(NB. Benayoun's sale for a reported fee of £6.5m essentially pays for Rafa's redundancy)

Even if only half of this amount (£22m) is added to the kitty of £12m, the club can still afford to spend £34m. Delirious fans talking of multiple £15-20m bids for players are totally unrealistic unless Gerrard, Torres or Mascherano leave.

Roy may have to admit defeat if a huge bid from an overseas club comes in for Mascherano and he wants to go. For example, could we refuse a £25m cash bid or part-exchange (£10m + Lass Diarra? £5m + Benzema or Zlatan?). Rumours are rife regarding Torres and Gerrard's reluctance to stay unless big buys are made and Mascherano has made no secret of he and his family's preference for life in Spain ahead of life on Merseyside.

Reports in Italy and Spain suggest the board have put a £30m price tag on Mascherano and bids so far only in the region of £25m. Mascherano's loyalty to Benitez is strong: the dismissal of the Spaniard could provide him a way out of Anfield and stay loyal to the man who rescued him from West Ham's reserves.

It would be foolish for Hodgson to allow Gerrard or Torres to leave but aside from Mascherano's obvious footballing qualities, the Argentine's apparent unhappiness off the pitch makes him the most likely candidate for the exit door this summer as unhappy players cannot be good for team morale. Gerrard's emotional ties to the city and club seem too strong to break despite typically daft rumours of Gerrard selling his house and not enrolling his children in school. Whatever the future of Mascherano or Gerrard, it would be suicidal to sell them to another English club.

Regarding Torres, he recently signed a new long-term deal and the only sides that could afford his fee appear to English: namely Man City and Chelsea. If his motivation for leaving is football (which it should be), then Chelsea is the only viable move and selling Torres to Abramovich would be suicidal PR for the club on and off the pitch.

Despite the fans' obvious opposition to either man going, a big-money sale would generate enough cash to find a quality replacement as well as further funds to improve other areas in desperate need of reinforcement such as a striker to cover/partner Torres, wide midfielders and left-back. However, Hodgson has been keen to reiterate his commitment to retaining both players for fear a triggering an exodus among senior players such as Torres and Kuyt, both linked with summer moves.

Roy's potential shopping list:
Ziegler/Konchesky £4m, Drenthe loan, Wilson £2m, Scharner free, Cole free, Gervinho/Turan £10m, Shelvey £2m, Jovanovic free, Huntelaar or Llorente £12m. Total spend: £34m.

Potential sides:
Most home games and easier away games (*8 "homegrown" players):
4-4-2: Reina; Konchesky*, Agger, Carragher*, Johnson*; Cole*, Meireles, Gerrard*, Kuyt; Torres, Huntelaar.
Subs: Jones* (Gulacsi*), Aurelio (Robinson*), Kelly* (Wilson), Lucas (Poulsen), Maxi (Shelvey*), Jovanovic (Pacheco), N'Gog (Amoo).

Tough home games and many away games:
4-2-3-1: Reina, Konchesky*, Agger, Carragher*, Johnson*; Meireles, Poulsen; Cole*, Gerrard*, Kuyt; Torres.
Subs: Jones* (Gulacsi*), Aurelio (Robinson*), Kelly* (Wilson), Lucas (Shelvey*), Maxi (Amoo*), Jovanovic (Pacheco), Huntelaar (N'Gog).

Friday, 9 April 2010

FACT OF THE WEEK

Eleven Premiership midfielders have created more goals than Steven Gerrard this season.
  • Cesc Fabregas (15) Free.
  • Frank Lampard (14) £11m. A bargain signing. 100 goals in 300+ appearances in 9 injury-free seasons.
  • Ryan Giggs (12) Free.
  • James Milner (11) £12m
  • Ashley Young (10) £8m (with add-ons) signed in Jan 2007.
  • Nani (9) £14m (with add-ons)
  • Aaron Lennon (9) £1m. Steal from the sinking ship of Leeds United.
  • Matthew Etherington (9) £2m. Sold by West Ham following gambling problems.
  • Antonio Valencia (9) £15m Big-money signing from Wigan last summer.
  • Shaun Wright-Phillips (7) £8.5m A return home for the prodigal son.
  • Gareth Barry (7) £12m - could have, would have, should have?
Of these dozen players, 5 cost over £10m:
  • Lampard was signed in 2004 for £11m when we spent a similar sum on Xabi Alonso.
  • Milner was signed in 2008 for £12m while we spent £8m on Riera, £7m on Dossena, £3m on Diego Cavalieri and "free" Philipp Degen (who has cost millions in wages): none of whom have featured regularly except Riera who has talked his way out of the club.
  • Nani cost £14m in 2007 when we spent £70m (£35m net) on the likes of Torres, Lucas, Babel and Benayoun.
  • Valencia was signed last summer from Wigan when our only big outlay was on Aquilani. Only a fool or blinkered optimist would argue Aquilani has contributed more than Valencia this season and will in the future.
  • Barry would have been signed for £18m in 2008 but was prevented by Alonso's reluctance to leave. Barry could not been signed in 2009 for £12m because Rafa was desperate for the Basque midfield maestro to stay! At 29, probably a good call although again in the context of Aquilani's acquisition potentially questionable in the long term.
Fabregas and Giggs were signed as youth internationals so just a case of a missed trick by the academy and youth scouts. Something now being addressed by Rodolfo Borrell at the helm of the academy. He has vowed to focus on nurturing more local talent in the way he did at Barcelona with the likes of Fabregas (who he discovered locally at the age of 10 and later signed him for Barca), and nutured a good chunk of both Barca's dominant European Cup winning squad and Spain's superb World Cup squad come from Borrell's spell at the Catalan club's youth academy.

Now let's look at the more affordable players in the list:
  • Young £8m signed in Jan 2007 in a season we signed Jermaine Pennant for £6.7m and a £2m deal for Sebastian Leto was agreed. Neither of whom shone in a Red shirt.
  • Lennon £1m in the summer we signed Antonio Nunez for £2m.
  • Etherington £2m signing from West Ham in a season where Dossena and Degen came in.
  • Wright-Phillips £8.5m signing from Chelsea, a price not available to Liverpool at a time when City were not considered direct rivals for Chelsea.
Of the 11 players with the most assists in the Premiership this season, by this analysis only Milner (a player coveted by Liverpool at the time but deemed too pricey), Young and Lennon were missed opporunities. All were acquired from clubs in turmoil and England under-21 internationals who have gone on to earn full honours at international level.

The lessons to be learned are although speculating on young players who are proven at under-21 level can be risky (Pennant was a hot property as a youth international), the risk is outweighed by the enormous rewards of developing the talent to a world-class level and potentially huge transfer fees.

Friday, 2 April 2010

TOM'S TRANSFER TARGETS: LEFT BACK

With the injury-prone Aurelio following the inconsistent Italian Dossena on his way out, we need a new left-back who is stronger, bigger and quicker than Insua. Insua could still blossom into a top player but we've gotta get a new first-choice left-back to challenge him.

Criteria:
  1. International: If he's not in his national squad, how can he could enough to compete at the top of the most competitive league in the world?
  2. Not Asian/American: To avoid players being jet-lagged following international duty, ideally the player would be a UEFA/African international. The beachball incident in the defeat at Sunderland took attention away from the fact that both Lucas and Mascherano were jet-lagged and unfit for duty. We shouldn't have to rotate the squad after every international break. To compete with Insua, we cannot have a repeat of the Lucas and Mascherano debacle - we lost the title last season by a few points and could miss out on Champions League place by a small margin again so these fine details can make a big difference.
  3. Not injury-prone (see Degen and Aurelio): a player with a track record of regular games and not repeated injury lay-offs.
  4. Physically able to cope with demands of English game - good in air, quick, strong on ball.
  5. We cannot afford to splash big cash on the position as the midfield and attack need quality reinforcements. So £5-6m at most would be the price range we could afford.
Premiership-based:
  • Figueroa (Wigan): 27 this year, Honduran so potentially unavailable after internationals, lightning pace so can get forward and track back better than Insua, great long shots and throws, despite his wonder goal hasn't contributed as much he could going forward but understandable given the form of many of his Wigan colleagues. **
  • Belhadj (Pompey): almost 28, Algerian and former France U-21 international, can also play in midfield, pacey, good crosser. **
Ones to watch in South Africa:

Taye Taiwo (Marseille): 26, 6ft, Nigerian international who is custom-made for the cut and thrust of the Premiership. Only drawback is international duty in Africa. ****

Michael Lumb (Zenit) Danish left back, 22, 5ft 10in, highly rated fullback was heavily scouted by several Premiership clubs but moved to St Petersburg in January after breaking into the Denmark squad alongside Daniel Agger. ***

Marcel Schäfer (Wolfsburg) German left back, 26, 6ft 1in, 7 caps for Germany. Made his name in last year's Bundesliga Linked with Real Madrid in the summer but Real did not offload enough players to be able to fund a move. Wolfsburg lie in 9th in the Bundesliga so he could be one of a few departures this summer. ****

Aleksandar Kolarov (Lazio) 24, 6ft 2in, Serbian left back with rocket of a left foot, tall and strong. Stand-out performer in a struggling Lazio side. ***

Saturday, 6 March 2010

INTERNATIONAL ROUND-UP / WIGAN (a)

INTERNATIONAL ROUND-UP
Another international matchday this week meant several key players jetted off to join their national squads for another questionable friendly match ahead of this summer's World Cup.
One must question the value of players racking up their air miles for a couple of training sessions and a uncompetitive game where changes and experimentation rarely replicate the true intensity of competitive football.

Anyhow, with the long list of casualties, several players did not join up with their countries. Injury clouds hang most notably over our defence as Martin Skrtel (metatarsal) Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger (both knee) were unfit for duty this week. Johnson has returned to training but Agger is very doubtful for the trips to Wigan and Lille and Skrtel is sidelined for at least a month following his metatarsal injury in Romania. Following Insua's exclusion from Maradona's Argentina squad, cult Greek hero Soto Krygiakos was the only defender in international action: he played the full 90 mins in a surprise 2-0 home defeat against Senegal.
In fact, it was probably a much needed run-out for Soto following a three match domestic ban.

In midfield, Mascherano skippered Argentina to a scrappy 1-0 win over Germany in Munich: a dull affair with only a shot on goal each! At Wembley, Gerrard came through 73 minutes of England's 3-1 victory over Egypt at Wembley as stand-in skipper. Israel captain Yossi Benayoun produced a talismanic performance, scoring in a 2-0 win in Romania.

Up front, Holland beat England's World Cup opponents USA and Kuyt played for 81 mins, scoring a penalty before being replaced by Babel for a trademark 10 minute cameo. Importantly, Torres played the entire second half of Spain's comfortable 2-0 canter in Paris against a dismal France.


WIGAN PREVIEW
A (perhaps unwise) rearranged Monday night kick-off at Wigan on Monday night is the next test for Liverpool, as they look to recoup lost ground on the rivals for that coveted fourth place.

With the injuries to Agger and Skrtel, Krygiakos will return to the defence probably alongside Carragher in the middle as Agger seems unlikely to be fit following suffering severe bruising to his knee in the bruising battle v Blackburn. Insua will play at left-back as Aurelio is again injured but Rafa's biggest selection headache is at right back. Mascherano has deputised in the absence of injured duo Glen Johnson and Martin Kelly. Kelly has featured on the bench recently and Johnson too has returned to full training. With the recent freezing weather, there have been no opportunites for a run-out in the reserves so Benitez has been understandably reluctant to throw Kelly in from the start without building up his match fitness.

Despite Mascherano's impressive cameos at full-back, I would personally advocate Martin Kelly starting at Wigan with Glen Johnson coming off the bench for a run-out ahead of the trip to Lille. I prefer to see players in their natural positions and the inclusion of Kelly is an ideal opportunity to give him valuable game-time to gain experience and fitness against a struggling Wigan attack. Johnson should be eased back in and having only just returned to full training this week, I would give the England international a run-out in the second-half to build up his fitness. Kelly should be able to cope with a game against a lowly side who have one of the worst attacks in the league (less than a goal a game) and the second worst home record behind doomed Portsmouth (only 3 wins and just ELEVEN goals in 13 matches at the DW). They have scored just once in the last five home games with Martinez bemoaning the state of the pitch affecting their ability to play with their natural passing style - which shouldn't be an excuse for either side after the pitch was re-laid last week.

Their top scorer, Hugo Rodallega with 7 strikes is the only forward to have scored for Wigan in the Prem this season and is without a goal so far in 2010. He has not scored and Wigan have not won a game in their last 9. Jason Scotland, who followed Martinez to Wigan from Swansea has yet to score from 23 appearances. Added to the lack of cutting edge up front, the joint second top scorers (N'Zogbia and Scharner with 4 each) are both injury doubts for Monday.
In addition to their attacking woes, Wigan's defence has been leaky: 53 goals conceded in 27 games at a ratio of almost 2 goals per game suggests former Liverpool 'keeper Chris Kirkland will be busy.

Probable Wigan team (4-5-1):
Kirkland; Figueroa, Bramble, Caldwell, Melchiot; N'Zogbia or Moses, Diame, Thomas, Scharner or Watson, McCarthy; Rodallega. Subs: Stojkovic, Boyce, Watson/Scharner, Sinclair, Gomez, Moreno, Scotland.

Possible Liverpool team (4-2-3-1):
Reina; Insua, Krygiakos, Carra, Kelly; Mascherano, Lucas; Benayoun, Gerrard, Kuyt; Torres. Subs: Diego, Johnson, Mavinga, Aquilani, Maxi, Babel, N'Gog.

Sunday, 28 February 2010

EUROPA LEAGUE LAST 16 PREVIEW: LIVERPOOL v LILLE OSC

Following a satisfactory (if not scintillating) win over Unirea in the last 32 stage, the Reds will now face French side Lille OSC after their last-ditch win over Turkish giants Fenerbahce.

For fans, players and coaches wary of all that a trip to "Hell" brings (both on and off the pitch), a very different kind of trip to Istanbul has been avoided as Liverpool escape a long trip into Eurasia and instead the Reds can hop on the train or ferry across the English Channel.

Although Liverpool among the hot favourites to lift the UEFA (sorry Europa League) trophy in May and Lille have a less-than-illustrious European pedigree, Liverpool should remember last season's scare against Liege before underestimating their opposition.

Off the pitch, like Liverpool, Lille had a season of turmoil. Manager Rudi Garcia was surprisingly sacked after disagreements over transfer policy with the chief executive (something Benitez is all too familiar with this). However, he was soon after reinstated when the chief executive resigned a la Rick Parry and the main shareholder and president re-appointed Garcia. In another coincidence, "Les Dogues" (The German Mastiffs") have been in limbo over protracted plans to build a new stadium, now delayed until 2012 at the earliest.

On the park, Lille finished 5th in Ligue 1 last season and soon lost their star man, top scorer and playmaker Brazilian Michel Bastos to runners-up Lyon for 18 million euros. However despite all this turmoil, Lille have mounted a title challenge this campaign, currently lying 5th, only four points adrift of leaders and reigning champions Bordeaux.

Bastos' replacement, flamboyant Ivorian forward Gervinho has been a revelation with 16 goals so far. He is now a fixture in the Ivory Coast squad, playing alongside Didier Drogba to great effect recently in the African Nations' Cup.

Another notable recruits include French international goalkeeper Mickael Landreau from Paris St Germain and Gabonese international striker Pierre Aubameyang, on loan from AC Milan. Following the lucrative departure of Bastos, Garcia has kept most of last year's squad together (despite a few transfer requests following Bastos' exit and the uncertainty over Garcia) and the addition of attacking options have more than compensated for the Brazilian's exit.

Alongside Gervinho (16 goals including 5 in Europe), the former French U21 striker Pierre-Alain Frau (13) have made Lille's attack the most prolific in the French top flight.

Other mainstays are diminutive defensive midfielder Rio Mavuba whose early promise prompted lofty comparisons to Jean Tigana and, more accurately, Claude Makelele. Over the years he has been linked with many top clubs but a short and successful spell at Villarreal in 2008 was curtailed as the Frenchman failed to settle in Spain. Nevertheless he is a very effective holding player and has been capped six times for Les Bleus. Alongside him the slightly
more creative Yohan Cabaye, 22, a former U21 international who was part of France's u19 World Cup-winning squad.

On the flanks, beware the aptly named Eden Hazard. The 19-year old Belgian international winger made his international debut at just 17 as part of a hugely promising Belgium side (Reds will remember Axel Witsel and Steven Defour of Liege - add to that Fellaini, Kompany and Vermaelen: all now established Premier League stars).

Hazard himself is a tricky, technically gifted winger who is a wonderful dribbler and his mazy runs and tricks allied to ever-improving crossing have led to six assists so far this season and three in his ten appearances for Belgium. He is right footed but can play on either wing, often cutting in from the wing and unleashing powerful shots from range. His exciting displays led him to international honours and was named Young Player of the Year in France, the first time an overseas player has won the award. Following reported interest from several top European clubs, Lille improved and extended Hazard's contract until 2014.

Don't take my word for it? Check this compilation of his greatest hits (if it's too long for you, cut straight to 3:48 for his goal against Lyon and some glowing endorsements in French from Arsene Wenger)....



In defence, Adil Rami, the Frenchman of Moroccan descent is their lynchpin. The central defender is noted for his aerial prowess and is a big threat from set-pieces (highlighted with his late equaliser in Istanbul which set up this tie). He has turned down several approaches to play for Morocco in favour of waiting of a cap from his native France. Rami's recent form has lead to his inclusion in the French squad for the final World Cup qualifying matches and this week's friendly against Spain. There have even been reports in France that Liverpool are monitoring the defender's progress with a view to signing the player this summer as our French scout Laurent Viaud has been spotted at recent games (although more likely in anticipation of a potential Europa League clash).

In January, Garcia added Portuguese stopper Ricardo Costa, a key versatile defender, often alongside Ricardo Carvalho in the heart of Jose Mourinho's all-conquering Porto side.

First 11 (4-3-3, R-L): Landreau; Debuchy, Rami, Beria, Costa; Balmont, Mavuba, Cabaye; Hazard, Frau/de Melo, Gervinho.

Form: In Europe, Lille qualified from a tough second round group containing Valencia. Genoa and Slavia Prague. Back-to-back wins over the Czechs, a home win over Genoa and a home draw with Valencia secured their passage despite defeats at Spain and Italy.

Domestically, Sunday's narrow home defeat v Auxerre was their first home defeat of the season. Lille could point to the adverse conditions which led to a 2 hour delay to kick-off and a controversial decision to play following torrential rainstorms saturating the surface. Furthermore, their long trip to Turkey last Thursday must have had an effect on the players.

Losses at Marseille, PSG, Auxerre and Montpellier earlier in the season were no disgrace.
Going into their winter break, "Les Dogues" recorded 7 wins in a row including a wonderful 4-3 win over Liverpool's tormentors Lyon.

Injuries: Star forward Gervinho is sidelined with a knee injury until at least late March which effectively rule him out of both legs of the match. This would be a big blow as he is Lille's top scorer and with 5 in 7 games in the Europa League so far.

Calendar: Ahead of the home leg, "Les Dogues" face a tough trip on Saturday to struggling St Etienne (a stadium known as "The Cauldron" for its fervent atmosphere). In between the legs, Lille then entertain bottom side Grenoble: a perfect opportunity to rest players without dropping vital points. On the other hand, Liverpool (thanks to ESPN?) have rescheduled the fixtures (Wigan away, Pompey home) prior to each leg to Monday night leaving the squad minimum chance to rest, recuperate and prepare for Lille. One benefit for Benitez, it allows extra time for players returning from international duty this week ahead of the Wigan game but on the other hand, the squad and staff have just two days to rest up, travel and prepare the side for the trip to Lille a week on Thursday. Only time will tell how our squad will cope.

The diagnosis of Skrtel's broken metatarsal (out for 8 weeks), Aurelio's thigh tear and Agger's heavily bruised knee are tempered thankfully by the return from injury of Martin Kelly and Glen Johnson plus Soto Krygiakos from suspension in defence. Up front, fingers crossed Fernando Torres continues his return to fitness for Spain in France on Wednesday as we can ill afford any further injury scares ahead of this crucial period in the season.

Sunday, 7 February 2010

SEASON SO FAR. A TALE OF TWO THIRDS?

Following a typically fiery Mersey derby, Liverpool's spirits will be high going into Wednesday's trip to the Emirates. The story of the season will be remembered as one of boardroom squabbling and financial crisis off the pitch with beachball bloopers and infinite injuries to key players on the park. Aside from a humbling at home to Reading in the FA Cup, Liverpool's lacklustre luck has taken a turn for the better and the rejuvenated Reds have regained that coveted fourth spot following a much-needed run of clean sheets and put pressure on Aston Villa, Spurs and Man City who all dropped vital points on Saturday. With a third of the season to go, let's look at the facts and figures for the squad with a dozen games remaining in their hunt for that lucrative Champions League spot.

Defensive despair to rock-solid rearguard: a tale of two thirds
Aside from the ever-present and ever-reliable Reina,
the lynchpin of Benitez's footballing philosophy was the Achilles' Heel at the start of this campaign. Only three clean sheets in the first 13 games led to Liverpool falling well off the pace of the title race and even top four contention. As Jamie Carragher succinctly highlighted this weekend, you don't lose games when you don't concede. Obvious but true.

Following a disappointing start to the season, there has been a marked improvement in defence since then with seven clean sheets in the last 12 league games and a scrappy last-gasp strike at Stoke being the only goal conceded by the Reds in the last SEVEN league fixtures.


There are many theories explaining this: anything from zonal marking to Arbeloa's departure and a more offensive approach leaving our defence exposed. Without getting into tactical nuances such as marking systems which are surely better discussed by experienced coaches than fans on blogs, forums or phone-ins, a few key factors have contributed to our inconsistency in defence this season.
Injuries would be the first thing you must talk about. Of the first-choice defence, only Carragher has remained fit throughout this season and has had 4 different partners alongside him (Agger, Skrtel, Krygiakos and Ayala) at various points. It's no coincidence that a settled rearguard over recent weeks has allowed the defenders to forge partnerships and develop an understanding which inevitably leads to better decision-making, understanding and interplay. Fitness is a huge factor in this: Agger's back troubles (he apparently often has to stand on return flights after games) and Skrtel's erratic early-season form probably a result of a long lay-off following serious knee surgery as he has been available for selection in virtually every matchday squad so far.

The emergence of the Greek defender Soto Krygiakos has been viewed as a catalyst to the defensive renaissance and his no-nonsense approach has galvanised a defensive unit lacking continuity, and consequently, confidence.
While the Greek has impressed in recent weeks with his brave, committed displays, question marks remain over his discipline and mobility against top class opposition. However, a lack of physicality and intimidation at the heart of the defence seems to have now been addressed in recent weeks by the Greek's rugged approach to defending demonstrated by his man-of-the-match accolades, notably in a scrappy stalemate at Stoke.

Meanwhile,
Insua has only missed two games at left-back (following his international call-ups) and having turned 21, is learning his trade. His inexperience and lack of physical presence are tempered by his ability to get forward, giving Liverpool much needed natural width on the left in the continued absence of Albert Riera. His lack of height at only 5ft 7in need not be a huge hindrance (puns aside) as many of the top players in his position such as Ashley Cole and Patrice Evra are of a similar stature. Like these contemporaries, Insua has demonstrated his creative capabilities with four assists so far, although there's still room for improvement in both his passing and final ball. The modern day fullback must combine both stability in defence with pace and work-rate to supplement attacks.

At right-back, the arrival of Glen Johnson has certainly provided this balance with dynamic runs from the back helping him to two goals and three assists. However, a couple of muscular niggles and knee ligament injury at Villa Park in December have sidelined the new man and meant aside from a couple of cameos from Philipp Degen, Carragher has filled the breach with Krygiakos forcing his way in at centre-half. With Martin Kelly's dream debut becoming a nightmare as he got injured trying to keep out Lyon's equaliser at Anfield, enough promise was shown to suggest the local lad has a big future. At 6ft 3in, the England U20 international will hopefully get more minutes as an able deputy to Johnson or even starting alongside Johnson in a more advanced role. Equally comfortable in central defence, he provides a solid alternative to Johnson than the cavalier Degen. Despite some impressive cameos, the Swiss international must be surplus to requirements to allow Kelly enough opportunities to develop.

Many fans initially pointed to the departure of the reliable Arbeloa and Johnson's attacking instincts undermining our defensive solidity. It is easy to look at the individual defenders' relative merits but the major factor in defence has been the inconsistency of personnel as the number of clean sheets garnered since being able to sustain a settled back four. Look at Birmingham's brilliant recent record, Alec McLeish has been able to name the same starting 11 for a League record 12 consecutive games (incidentally only losing once in that run, at Stamford Bridge, their only loss in 18 matches).


The defence have kept clean sheets at footballing sides like Aston Villa, Spurs and Man United but seem to struggle to cope with teams who adopt a more aggressive, direct strategy. Compare and contrast the comfortable, composed shut-outs against at Villa Park and at home to Spurs and Man United with the timid attitude and approach at Bolton (Krygiakos' shaky debut), Portsmouth and Sunderland. Critics use this as an opportunity to highlight this as evidence of a negative, counter-attacking approach but table-topping Chelsea's 2-0 snatch-and-grab win over Arsenal would be Exhibit A in the case for the defence.

"Let's talk about the facts..."
Team: 2250 mins played/26 goals conceded = 87mins per goal conceded.
Carragher 24 starts, 2151 mins/24 goals conceded = 90mins/goal.
Insua 23 starts, 2039/21 = 97 mins per goal conceded, 5 assists.
Johnson 17 starts, 1492/19 = 79mins/goal conceded, 2 goals, 3 assists.
Skrtel 14 starts, 1229/17 = 72 mins/conceded, 1 goal.
Agger 12 starts, 1000/8 = 125 mins/conceded.
Aurelio 7 starts, 616/6 = 103 mins, 3 assists.
Krygiakos 7 starts, 653/8 = 82 mins, 1 goal.
Degen 3 starts (only 1 at fullback in 3-1 loss at Fulham), Ayala 1 start (clean sheet v Stoke).


The statistics are no indication of individual performance and quality of opposition and in the context of a season of inconsistency in personnel, and consequently, performance.

Midfield - life after Alonso
The balance in central midfield has been a long-standing talking point. Since the days of Hamann or Sissoko playing alongside Alonso in the middle pushing Steven Gerrard into a wider or more advanced role, many pundits and supporters have questioned the wisdom in Rafa's policy of favouring two holding midfielders to marshal the midfield.
This lack of cover has been exposed with suspensions, injury and international excursions taking its toll on the defensive midfield duo. Staunch defenders of this tactic point to Lucas' attacking ability betraying his depiction as a dull defensive midfielder but nobody would dare to suggest a return of one goal in 2 seasons as a first-team regular despite the tactical shackles he often plays with. He has only managed 5 shots on target and 1 assist all season (for N'Gog's goal against Man U). Last season he scored just once and made two assists: hardly the kind of return from a player mooted as a long-term successor to Steven Gerrard.

His battling displays this season are testament to the confidence shown in him by Rafa and a maturing physique, a weakness he needed to address to survive the transition to the more physical English game. Both Lucas and Mascherano demonstrated their battling qualities in style in Saturday's derby duel and are undoubtedly effective in tough derby games and trips to top-four clubs which can be won and lost in the engine-room. Allied to their defensive rigidity, the South American duo feature among the top passers in the OPTA stats in both most completed passes and % completed.

Critics will point to the lack of penetration and ambition in their distribution, a feature never lacking from Alonso's passing game.
One cannot talk about the midfield without talking about the impact of Alonso's exit and the arrival of Aquilani. Undoubtedly, people will talk about the handling of the Basque's departure but the player wanted to leave and the club got almost triple the price they paid for him. After a marvellous campaign last season, fans understandably rued his sale but it must be remembered that his Liverpool career was marked by injury and inconsistency despite his obvious class. Aquilani's acquisition at a reported £20m (to be paid over several instalments) was heralded as a top-class replacement, if not a like-for-like substitute.

Early medical opinion suggested the Italian's recovery from ankle surgery may keep him out for a month but his first league start did not arrive until the halfway stage of the campaign on Boxing Day v Wolves.
He is yet to play a full 90 minutes in the Premier League and his only full appearance came in the extra-time FA Cup demise v Reading.

However, recent signs are positive: he has made two assists for Dirk Kuyt in his last 2 games against Spurs and Bolton at Anfield. The main concern is Rafa's reluctance to play Aquilani away from home, his only start came at Villa Park in the absence of injured and suspended Javier Mascherano. He has also not featured against more physical opposition as Rafa favours the more combative qualities of the Latin American duo.
Many supporters would advocate replacing Lucas in favour of Aquilani more often to give the centre of midfield a creative look and offer more support to the lone striker. At home to most opposition and away to lower-ranked teams, one would question the necessity of both Lucas and Mascherano as a defensive shield, given their lack of attacking contribution in form of scoring or creating goals. The Italian international has already displayed a greater passing range and creativity than either South American but it remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the physical demands of English football and how he fits into the side alongside Gerrard, as they ideally would occupy an advanced midfield role behind the striker. Only time will tell.

In wide areas, injuries have again hit Liverpool hard. The absence of Albert Riera on the left has robbed Liverpool of natural width on the left (despite cameos from fullbacks Dossena and Aurelio) and has often meant either Yossi Benayoun has played out there ahead of a frustrated and out-of-favour Ryan Babel. Dirk Kuyt continues to divide opinion on the right side but nobody can question the Dutchman's commitment and work ethic wherever he plays. A return of 9 goals is excellent and has been vital in the continuing absence of the talismanic Torres.

"Let's talk about the facts..."
Dirk Kuyt 24 starts/1 sub; 2093mins; 9 gls, 3 assists =
233mins/gl, 697mins/assist
Lucas 23 starts/2 subs; 2075mins;
no goals, 1 assist = 2075mins/assist.
Mascherano 20 starts/2 subs; 1747mins;
no goals, 1 assist = 1747mins/assist.
Gerrard 19 starts/1 sub; 1728mins; 5 gls, 6 assists =
345mins/gl, 288mins/assist.
Benayoun 14 starts/6 subs; 1350mins, 5 goals, 4 assists =
270mins/gl, 338 mins/assist
Riera 9 starts/3 subs; 645 mins; no goals, 4 assists =
161 mins/assist.
Aquilani 4 starts/4 subs; 350 mins; no goals, 2 assists =
175 mins/assist.
Babel 3 starts/9 subs; 340 mins; 2 goals, 1 assist =
170 mins/goal, 340 mins/assist.
Maxi 2 starts/3 subs, Dossena 1 start v Pompey, Spearing 1 start v Sunderland.


Forwards - frustration and freebies
El Nino has been El Lesionado (The Injured) again this season. Persistent concerns over a niggling hernia meant Rafa has had be careful with the Spaniard's fitness, who is likely to face a long season ahead of the World Cup this summer. A lack of funds meant Benitez was severely restricted in his ability to get in fresh talent in attack as N'Gog is still raw and Babel has lacked the work rate and ability to hold the ball up required in Benitez's favoured system of a lone striker with Gerrard slightly deeper in support.

Torres' continued injury malaise has continued with pundits (or ex-footballers paid to state the bleeding obvious) highlighting his absence as evidence of Liverpool being overreliant on Gerrard and Torres to compete. Aside from serious injuries to key men such as Agger, Johnson, Mascherano and Riera, it was conveniently forgotten that Torres played in 6 of Liverpool's 7 league defeats.

Critics highlighted this lack of depth in the summer but Benitez defiantly backed N'Gog, Babel and the departed Voronin to provide adequate cover for Torres. The enigma of Ryan Babel continues to puzzle fans and pundits alike: Benitez publicly backs the player's ability to succeed at the club yet behind the scenes has made the player available at the right price. A common view is Rafa has questioned the player's commitment to the cause since his decision to attend the Beijing Olympics ahead of a key second season at the club.

The Dutchman is still to play successive matches and complete a full 90 minutes in the league this season: something he has only done 3 times in the league in his Liverpool career (A 3-1 win at Bolton on 07/08 and in last season's defeat at Middlesbrough and draw at Wigan). This season, he has started just three games: the defeats at Spurs and Sunderland and then in the 2-2 home draw with Man City, where he hobbled off early on. He is no longer employed in his favoured centre-forward role and it is hard to see him him featuring when everyone is fit.

Despite rumours of a swoop for a forward in January, Benitez kept his hand in his pocket in January as he agreed a Bosman deal with Serbian international striker Milan Jovanovic arriving this summer subject to a medical. Sceptics point to the Serbian's age (29) and lack of top-level experience and see this as a similar signing to Voronin. A decent goal return (52 in 110 games) for the top side in an average Belgian league does not inspire excitement but he is left footed and will hopefully become a useful squad player.

I personally would've spent the cash we've splurged on his signing-on fee on Victor Moses, the precocious but very promising teenage forward who moved to Wigan in the transfer window. At his age, it's no gamble, capped at numerous age levels for England, quick and with an eye for goal - recouping £2.5m for him would be no issue.
He would have no qualms if he's not starting every game and can play in a number of roles in Benitez's system with his pace and work-rate a real asset to a forward line lacking in pace aside from the injury-plagued Torres and out-of-favour Babel, which has contributed to a dismal return of just 12 goals in 12 away matches this season, compared to 25 by Arsenal and Man United.

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