Sunday, 21 June 2009

THE FUTURE FOR HICKS AND GILLETT

Liverpool's controversial American ownership regime took another twist over the weekend following co-owner George Gillett's sale of his controlling interest in his ice hockey franchise Montreal Canadiens in a $550m (£330m) deal. The American magnate will sell his 80% interest in the club and stadium to brewing tycoons the Molson family, subject to NHL approval.

Both Gillett and Hicks have been seeking to sell some of their American sports franchises in order to repay the loans from RBS and Wachovia taken out to fund their takeover and finally invest in the new Anfield stadium project that was promised before taking over the club in 2007.

Gillett's sale represents an excellent piece of business as he paid around £150m for his stake back in 2001 - in effect doubling his money. Gillett's sale of the Canadiens represents a big step towards meeting their July 22 deadline to finance the repayment of the takeover loans.

Concerns had been raised with Gillett's finances although it now appears to be his Texan partner who needs to free up some income. In April, Tom Hicks' investment company Hicks Sports Group defaulted on £325m in loans linked to his Texas Rangers baseball club and ice hockey outfit Dallas Stars. He maintains that default was an act of forebearance, a deliberate stalling tactic to lever a better interest rate from the banks. Last month, Hicks revealed how he is looking to offload a controlling interest in the Rangers. The Dallas businessman bought the Rangers in 1998 for $250 million and Forbes magazine recently valued the franchise at $405 million (£250m) and the club seems well set for sale with increasing revenues and an in-form team sitting top of their division.

Hicks needs to re-negotiate the terms of his defaulted loans for the Rangers and Stars or sell the Rangers in order to have the capital to repay the loan next month and finally invest in the development of the much anticipated Stanley Park site which still lays derelict behind Anfield Road. Following the addition of Liverpool season-ticket holder and investment banker Christian Purslow to the board, it is thought the Americans will now have the financial expertise to re-finance and attract new investment to finally deliver their promise of a new stadium on Stanley Park: something that will finally give the club the financial clout to compete with any club.

Despite the justified and understandable criticism of the owner's behaviour since taking over, the club is in decent financial health with massive potential to grow with an improved commercial operation and expanded stadium bringing more revenue to attract the best talent and even more develop home-grown potential.

One may question the motivation of the owners' intentions but it would not be in their interest to run the club into the ground and their investment in transfers shows an appreciation of modern sport. With the offer of a long-term contract for Benítez, they have shown a willingness to listen to the fans, end their public squabbling and bring some stability and modernity to the management structure. The jury is out on their ability to deliver the investment required for a new Anfield and if the club can strike the balance between a slicker commercial operation generating more funds for Benítez while maintaining the integrity of the club's proud tradition.

Thursday, 11 June 2009

THE NUMBERS GAME

Not only do I spend 40 hours a week crunching numbers for a living, I've had a quick peek at the annual Deloitte Review of Football Finance 2009 report into football's finances which revealed some startling truths about their long-term sustainability. Overall from a Liverpool FC perspective, the financial situation is relatively not as dire as the scaremongering media analysis in recent weeks would have you believe. Here's the key figures and what they mean:

Club
Debt (£m)
Turnover (£m)
Wages (£m)
Wages/turnover
Arsenal 416 223 101.3 45%
Aston Villa 73 75.6 50.4 66.6%
Blackburn Rovers 17 56.4 39.7 70%
Bolton Wanderers 52 59.1 39 67%
Chelsea 701 213.6 149 68%
Everton 39 76 44.5 59%
Fulham 197 53.7 39.3 73%
Hull City (2007 figures) 1 9 6.9 77%
Liverpool 280 (est) 159 80 (est) 50%
Manchester City 147 82.3 54.2 66%
Manchester United 699 256.2 121.1 47%
Middlesbrough 93 48 34.8 73%
Newcastle United 106.2 100.8 74.6 74%
Portsmouth 57.7 70.6 54.7 78%
Stoke City 2.3 11.2 11.9 106%
Sunderland 69.2 63.6 37.1 58%
Tottenham Hotspur 65 114.8 52.9 46%
West Bromwich Albion 8.9 27.2 21.8 80%
West Ham United 36 57 44.2 76%
Wigan Athletic 66.4 43 38.4 89%
Total 3126.7 1800 1095 55%

Table courtesy of the excellent David Conn of the Guardian.


Conclusions
Debt
Liverpool currently have the smallest debt at £280m - made up of Hicks and Gillett's loans used to buy the club and fund operations (player transfers and wages, consultancy costs for new stadium and interest repayments). Arsenal's £416m deficit is next "best" as they are still paying for the Emirates Stadium following the failure to sell the Highbury properties, poor sporting performance and boardroom uncertainty. Chelsea and Manchester United have by far the biggest debts, owing in the region of £700m. The major difference is the interest accrued: the Glazer family levied large debt on club during their takeover whereas Chelsea's deficit largely consists of interest-free loans from their Russian sugar daddy.

Turnover
Turnover is a rather deceptive measure of financial performance as it only indicates the level of income a business generates and takes no consideration for operating costs (see below for analysis of profits). Having said that, theoretically, the greater the turnover, the greater financial muscle a club has regarding transfer policy and wage structure in order to be competitive. The top four's domination is underlined by these figures : since Newcastle's demise, Spurs are the only other club to turnover more than £100m a year.

Wages
In order to compensate for their reduced income as they struggle to keep abreast with the dominant big four clubs, Premiership teams are increasingly blowing bigger sums of plto recruit stars to bridge this gap. Stoke City spent more than their entire turnover on wages and will look now to consolidate and increase their turnover. Football's governing bodies have criticised this sort of financial (mis-)management after many high-profile clubs (e.g. Leeds Utd and Leicester City) fell into administration following spiralling costs in the desperation to compete at the top table. Despite calls for a salary cap, Football League clubs cannot have a wage above 60% of their turnover: sensible indeed. Interestingly, only six Premier League clubs would meet this criteria: Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham and Sunderland.

Now let's look at how the books balance for the top four. In simple terms, who makes a profit when the costs are taken out of the turnover.

Club: Matchday revenue / Operating profits / Overall debt
Man U: £101.5m / -£44.8m / £69m
Liverpool: £39.2m / +£30.2m / £21m
Chelsea: £75.5m / -£84.5m / (n/a)
Arsenal: £94.6m / +£36.7m / £26m

Matchday revenue
Unsurprisingly, Man United dominate this area as their monstrous commercial operation, that is probably only matched globally by Real Madrid. Sponsorship, marketing, merchandise, hospitality and the largest club stadium in Britain all contribute to swell the coffers. Arsenal are next best following the move to a larger stadium and the ability to charge London prices. Chelsea come third following the arrival of Kenyon's marketeering and the moneyed Johnny-come-Lately plastic West Londoners (exemplified by the club having to hand out free flags on European nights to create atmosphere! Liverpool fans bring their own.) This is an area which Liverpool's ownership are keen to improve with the construction of a new, larger stadium and capitalising and expanding the commercial operation under Ian Ayre. Anfield has been given 5 more years before needing substantial refurbishment and the situation is underlined by the fact that even Spurs generate more sponsorship and matchday revenue despite finishing mid-table and having an even smaller ground!

Operating profits
Despite the poor matchday income, Liverpool still made a modest operating profit and alongside Arsenal show that business is healthy. Off the field, Ian Ayre's team have expanded the merchandising operation (Liverpool's new Liverpool One superstore), matchday travel packages, LFCTV, improved website and setting up overseas commercial and sporting links. The key factor in Liverpool's relatively poor operating turnover is the limited matchday profit from Anfield. However, it is important that the club strike the right balance between maintaining the integrity of its traditions while taking advantage of commercial deals, sponsorship and attracting new fans in order to increase revenue for transfers, wages and investment in the youth structure and training facilities.


PERFORMANCE-RELATED INCOME
Unsurprisingly, Man United's on-field success was reflected by their prize money. Despite finishing as Premier League runners-up, Liverpool won £10m less in prize money than 3rd placed Chelsea - largely thanks to Liverpool's epic Champions League exit at Stamford Bridge. This underlines the financial importance of the tournament and in pursuit of that elusive 19th title, we cannot afford to neglect our European commitments.

Club: PL /Euro /Cups / Total

Man Utd: 52.3 / 33.7 / 4.0 / £90.0m

Liverpool: 51.1 / 20.4 / 0.8 / £72.3m

Chelsea: 48.4 / 27.7 / 5.1 / £81.2m

Arsenal: 47.2 / 23.4 / 2.8 / £73.4m

Premier League earnings: prize money (max £15.2m, min £761,000); TV cash (£13.9m per club plus £480,000 per televised match - minimum payment 10 matches); overseas TV, sponsorship and licensing money (£12m per club). In 2008-09, Liverpool earned 51.1m compared to 52.3 for Man United (even Newcastle managed£37m!!).

European: Champions League earnings (TV money and performance bonuses).

FA Cup: prize money (£75,000 for 3rd round win rising to £2m for final win); TV money (£160,000 to £275,000 per live match). Carling Cup: £100,000 per live televised match.

Sunday, 12 April 2009

LOAN IMPROVEMENT?

With an estimated 62 first-team players on the books, Rafa has loaned out around a third of the squad this season. With a shortage of reserve-team action, added competition and a more settled first-team squad, many players will now get some valuable regular action at other clubs. Let's assess how the loaners have done and their prospects of a long-term future at the club.

Ratings: *Leighton Maxwell, **John Walsh, ***David Thompson, ****Neil Mellor, *****Danny Murphy.

GOALKEEPERS
David Martin (Leicester) The 23-year old keeper was receiving rave reviews as he made seven clean sheets in 25 appearances until he was injured in February against Swindon. *

Peter Gulacsi (Hereford United) The teenage Hungarian stopper has appeared 13 times for the League One strugglers and has had plenty of practice. His only clean sheet came against Leeds United, where his man-of-the match display included a penalty save. ***

Nikolai Mihalyov (FC Twente) The Bulgarian U-21 goalie has recently been promoted to the first 11 by former England boss Steve McClaren. He has performed well in 5 appearances in a Twente side on an 18 match unbeaten run in the Eredivisie. He also featured in the Champions league qualifier defeat versus Arsenal at the Emirates back in August. **

DEFENDERS
Jack Hobbs (Leicester) The 20-year old centre half's impressive displays has been at the heart of a Leicester City side who have led League One throughout. The Foxes' manager has now signed Hobbs on a permanent basis.
Robbie Threlfall (Hereford and Stockport) Following his spell at Hereford last season, the Liverpudlian left-back returned there and failed to get regular opportunities with the League One strugglers and later moved to Stockport for a month and played twice. The 20-year old has dropped way down the pecking order following the emergence of (the younger) Emiliano Insua and will probably leave the club.

MIDFIELDERS
Adam Hammill (Blackpool and Barnsley) The 21-year old winger began the season at Championship side Blackpool making 18 appearances, scoring once and making two assists. In January, he then moved across the Pennines to fellow strugglers Barnsley. Hammill has started just four games for the Tykes, he made a great assist in Saturday's 1-1 draw at Watford. **

Paul Anderson (Nottingham Forest) The 20-year old winger has made 25 starts in a Nottingham Forest side fighting for Championship survival. He has been a regular in the side despite injury problems, scoring goals against both Plymouth and Norwich. *
Sebastian Leto (Olympiakos) The young Argentine winger failed to secure a UK work visa and was farmed out to the Greek champions to gain valuable experience. Despite being a regular and scoring a few spectacular goals, Leto has fallen out of favour with their Spanish coach Ernesto Valverde who accused the winger of repeated breaches of discipline. Any return for the Argentine would be subject to a successfu; visa application which would based upon his stalling international career. **

STRIKERS
Andriy Voronin (Hertha Berlin) The ponytailed Ukrainian has raised eyebrows with his goalscoring exploits in the German capital with 11 goals in 20 games. Any permanent move to Hertha would be dependent on the debt-ridden club's qualification to the Champions' League. Voronin turns 30 in July and many have pointed he could have proved an able deputy following the departure of Keane and a series of injuries to Torres. However it seems as though Benitez will look to cash in on his successes in Germany to fund a replacement. **

Craig Lindfield (Bournemouth and Accrington Stanley) Following an initial loan spell on the south coast with limited playing opportunities, the Wirral-born striker moved to Accrington where he has scored twice from 13 starts.

Tuesday, 31 March 2009

INTERNATIONAL UPDATE

NATIONAL EXPRESS Hope in time for tea!
ENGLAND (Gerrard)
A good 45 mins runout for the skipper against Slovakia included an early assist for ex-Red Emile Heskey in a slightly unfamiliar role (on left of 3 attacking midfielders) in a very familiar system. In competitive action, he did OK in a scrappy 2-1 win over Ukraine - playing the full game.


EASYJET A quick trip - no worries!
SLOVAKIA (Škrteľ)
Skrtel suffered at Wembley as his side lost 4-0 v England in Saturday's friendly but returned to competitive action with a good display in a fantastic 2-1 win away at local rivals Czech Republic.

NETHERLANDS (Kuyt, Babel)
Dirk Kuyt played the full match v Scotland on Sat scoring a 78th min pen and scored a first-half brace v Macedonia on Wed night, Babel came on at half-time but was unused v Scotland.

FRANCE U21s (N'Gog) A brief appearance versus Estonia at home (17mins as a sub) followed by a win in Nottingham, where he caused the young English defence constant problems and spurned a few good chances before being subbed after 60 mins.

SPAIN U21s (San José) A trip to Ireland where he played in an experimental young side that lost 2-1. He didn't feature in a much stronger side for Tuesday's 0-0 draw at home to Sweden.


NORDIC AIRWAYS Clocking up some air miles!
DENMARK (Agger)
Two potentially beneficial run-outs for Daniel as he looks to build up match fitness after his injury. He played two full matches in successive 3-0 wins away at Malta and home to Albania.

FINLAND (Hyypiä)
He kept a clean sheet at Cardiff in Finland's 2-0 win but picked a knee injury and returned to Melwood for treatment, missing Finland's friendly in Norway on Wed. Rafa said he should be recover in time for Saturday's trip to Fulham.

ITALY (Dossena)
Dossena didn't feature in the Azzurri squad in Montenegro on Sat but played the last half-hour in the 10-men World champs' 1-1 home draw v Ireland where Robbie Keane equalised late on.

LONG HAUL Jet lag?!
SPAIN (Reina, Arbeloa, Alonso, Riera, Torres)
Alonso and Torres started in Saturday's narrow 1-0 home win over Turkey were joined in the away tie by Albert Riera. Both Alonso and Riera found the net: Xabi equalised from the penalty spot and Riera got a last-gasp winner to all but seal the European champions' place in South Africa. Torres played 87 and 85 minutes in both games and didn't appear to suffer any knocks although he will undoubtedly tired from his exertions alone upfront in two tight matches.

ISRAEL (Benayoun)
The Israeli captain defied Benitez's wishes to join up with Israel but as captain of a nation with their best chance of World Cup qualification in their history, it was never on the cards. Following three weeks out, Yossi started but limped off on 75mins with a calf strain. In Wednesday's return fixture, he only made the bench but played the second half as his side lost 2-1 and Israel look well off the pace for qualification in 4th place, four points behind table-topping Greece.

ARGENTINA (Mascherano)
Mascherano was impressive in a comfortable 4-0 win over Venezuela but struggled to cope with the altitude as Maradona's men capitulated 6-1 in Bolivia (yes, SIX goals to one!). As I predicted, the dizzying heights of the region are extremely tough to adapt to and will have tested physical stamina to the maximum. Add in a 15 hour flight and it is unlikely Mascherano will be fresh enough to feature on Saturday. Benitez must hope he can recover for Champions' League action on Wednesday.

Monday, 23 March 2009

WORLD CUP WATCH:
Fingers crossed!



Following four very impressive wins in a row, momentum is (hopefully temporarily) curtailed by a fortnight's international break. Let's look at where on earth the players are jetting off to and the potential impact on our next match, away at Fulham as we look to go back to the top of the table. Thankfully this is the final international break of the season!!


NATIONAL EXPRESS Hope in time for tea!
ENGLAND (Gerrard)
A friendly on Sat v Slovakia may mean he faces up to Skrtel but hopefully Capello may take the chance to look at alternatives to Gerrard or restrict him to just 45 minutes' action. The following Wed, Eng than take on Ukraine at Wembley, a game he is sure to feature in given his current form. Hopefully, Capello plays him in a more advance role alongside Rooney. Thankfully, not many air miles for the Eng skipper: a bonus as he faces his hearing for an affray charge the day before the Fulham game.


EASYJET A quick trip - no worries!
SLOVAKIA (Škrteľ)
Friendly at Wembley followed by a tricky grudge qualifying tie in Prague v Czech Republic. An early sending-off and some rest would be ideal!

NETHERLANDS (Kuyt, Babel)
Two relatively straight-forward ties at home versus Scotland and Macedonia await the Dutch duo Easy on the Air Miles!


NORDIC AIRWAYS Clocking up some air miles!
DENMARK (Agger)
A potentially beneficial trip for Daniel. The Great Dane has a chance to build up match fitness after his injury: away at Malta and at home to Albania.

FINLAND (Hyypiä)
A tricky qualifier in Cardiff v Toshack's Wales followed by a pointless friendly in Norway (local pride excepted).

ITALY (Dossena)
The full-back has dropped behind Fabio Grosso in the Italy set-up but could feature on Sat away at Montenegro and the Wed after against Ireland for Trapattoni's homecoming!


LONG HAUL Jet lag?!
SPAIN (Reina, Arbeloa, Alonso, Riera, Torres)
A double-header v Turkey. "The Benitles" jet home for a home tie on Sat then travel to Turkey next Wed for a tough trip - a lot of Air Miles, hopefully only Torres will feature which means he can build up match fitness and not pick up yet another injury. Fingers crossed for Torres!!!

ISRAEL (Benayoun)
The Israeli captain has been called up despite not featuring since he sustained a hamstring tear in the build-up to the Real Madrid return leg. He returned to light training last week and if fit, he could feature in a top-of-the-table double-header v neighbours Greece. A lot of Air Miles and a risk considering the nature of his injury: Rafa will be concerned.

ARGENTINA (Mascherano)
The toughest, longest schedule possible! A home tie v Venezuela on Sat then an arduous trip to the dizzying heights of La Paz to take on Bolivia a week on Weds. The high altitude and lack of oxygen will test the stamina of the Argentine skipper who is sure to feature in both ties for Maradona's men. Definitely draining - very unlikely to feature at Fulham after this schedule!

MOROCCO (El Zhar)
Two World Cup qualifiers for Nabil: a home tie v Gabon and a tough trip to Angola next Tues.


CONCLUSION
Probable team (4-2-3-1) v Fulham:
Reina; Aurélio, Skrtel, Carragher, Arbeloa; Lucas, Alonso; Riera, Gerrard, Kuyt; Torres.

Despite fans' concerns over rotation at this key stage, it is hard to believe Mascherano will be fit and fresh enough for a traditionally tricky trip to Craven Cottage so I foresee a recall for Lucas (who is again out of Dunga's Brazil squad). Man Ure will have the same issue with Tevez and won't have the luxury of resting him as Rooney's banned and Berbatov's injured.

Hopefully, only Skrtel of our first-choice back five will be in action. In midfield, Lucas will be fresh after a fortnight at Melwood whilst fans must hope Riera and Alonso are rested for Spain. Up front, Kuyt, Gerrard and Torres hopefully return unscathed from international duty and ready for the run-in.

Sunday, 15 March 2009

RELEGATION RECRUITS

Away from the title race, the battle for survival is heating up. Briefly looking at the candidates for the drop, there are a host of potential recruits for Rafa this summer.

This policy could prove fruitful for a few reasons: 1) Players can settle into Prem easier than foreign imports. 2) Prem chairmen recently admitted some variation on the 6+5 rule is necessary so Liverpool must add some UK-based/English players. 3) Relegated teams are often forced to accept inferior fees. 4) Players will be keener to move to maintain Prem status and salary.

SUNDERLAND
Survival chance**** Almost safe, Sbragia will be Keane to offload some of Roy's big buys.
GK: Craig Gordon - out of favour Scot came in for big money could prove able deputy to Reina.
DF: Anton Ferdinand - U21 regular but can we possibly employ Rio's sibling?!
MD: Steed Malbranque - has more assists than anyone in Prem, versatile but good enough?
FW: Kenwyne Jones - linked as replacement for Crouch - young, good foil for Torres but not very prolific (only 14 goals in nearly 2 seasons).

BLACKBURN ****
DF: Christopher Samba: elegant, tall French-Congolese centreback
MD: Morten Gamst Pedersen, left-sided winger - creative (6 assists in 18 games).
FW: Benni McCarthy: scored 45 in 3 Prem seasons - could be experienced back-up for Torres.

NEWCASTLE *** A lot of over-paid underachievers - still could be some bargains to be had.
GK: Steve Harper, linked as possible deputy but now first-choice following Given's departure.
DF: Coloccini is an Argie international but has struggled to adapt - could offer back up to Arbeloa.
MD: Nolan at 4.5m was a snip and is a Red - could offer could back up if Lucas is offloaded. or even Danny Guthrie to return for a lower price? Spiderman Gutierrez could be an option too.
FW: Owen is injury-prone but available on a Bosman.

POMPEY *** Several internationals here - the vultures will be circling!
DF: Johnson, widely linked as Arbeloa is considered limited offensively and Degen is brittle.
MD: Kranjcar: linked with Arsenal - versatile, great on set-pieces but not so prolific.
Utaka: Versatile Nigerian, pacey, skilful.
FW: Return of the Crouch?! 14 goals so far and would be welcomed back warmly by many fans.

STOKE ** Their direct, rugged football means few players will be attracting Prem scouts.
MD: Etherington - could prove a bargain buy as back up if Leto doesn't get a work permit.

M'BORO ** Huge debts and small attendances mean Boro could never return.
DF: Wheater - England U21 centre half could be excellent long-term replacement for Hyppia or even Agger if he departs.
MD: Downing, widely linked to Liverpool but also Spurs. Solid and consistent but really good enough for a title challenge?
FW: Tuncay - prolific striker in Turkey, now plays in hole or as winger for Boro.

Potential shopping list:
REPLACE DIEGO: Gordon, Harper
REPLACE DEGEN: Johnson, Coloccini.
REPLACE AGGER/HYPPIA: Wheater, Samba, A.Ferdinand, Distin.
REPLACE LUCAS: Nolan, Bouba Diop, O'Neil, Guthrie.
BACK-UP RIERA: Kranjcar, Pedersen, Etherington, Downing, Malbranque, Gutiérrez.
REPLACE KEANE: Jones, McCarthy, Crouch, Owen, Tuncay.

So Reds up and down the land must be rooting for Pompey to go down as Kranjcar, Johnson and Crouch would be excellent additions. Crouch would give us attacking options from the bench, back-up for Torres or the option of 4-4-2 at home, Johnson a more offensive alternative to ever-reliable Arbeloa and Kranjcar a more creative alternative to Riera.

Tuesday, 3 February 2009

STRENGTH IN DEPTH?

As another transfer window slams shut, those Liverpool fans avidly watching Sky and Setanta's rolling sports news coverage will be disappointed. No surprise big-name arrivals or short-term cover with the seemingly inevitable exit of Robbie Keane. Rafa has been widely criticised on both the terraces and in the press for his treatment of Keane but at least it puts an end to the distractive talk surrounding his future, role in the squad and politics concerning club transfer policy - for now.

Enough has been written on Rafa's admission that Keane's acquisition was not his idea, seemingly more Parry's olive branch following the doomed Barry transfer saga - seemingly the last straw for Benitez in his ongoing feud with the endangered chief executive. I'm fed up with boardroom wrangles so focussing firmly on football, how does Keane's sale affect the strength of the squad. Overall, do we possess the necessary options to maintain our title challenge? Let's look at the depth of back-up for the first team.

GOALKEEPER
DIEGO ** Untried back-up to indispensible Reina - his rare cup forays have not inspired confidence.

DEFENCE
DOSSENA ** Injury-prone Aurelio has been excellent this term (when fit) compared to £7m Italian international Dossena. We are unbeaten in the 11 games Fabio has started compared to Dossena's record of W4 D4 L1. The scouts who recommended him failed to observe he is a wing-back not a full-back and has consequently struggled defensively. With Insua's emergence, I fully expect Rafa to offload him in the summer.

INSUA **** Fortunately, Insua has continued his progress with 3 wins and a draw over Christmas as cover for injured Aurelio. The youngster's great run of from was cruelly curtailed by his involvement in the pointless South American Under-20 tournament in Venezuela. He is due back later this month and will hopefully establish himself as Aurelio's deputy and potentially given Fabio's age and fitness record, his replacement.

AGGER/HYPPIA **** Experienced and assured back-up to Skrtel and Carragher.

DEGEN * What a waste of time. At least we didn't waste as much as we did on Dossena. As I said at the time, we really needed to strengthen other areas.

DARBY ** Untried in Prem this season, despite injuries to Arbeloa and Degen's constant absence. A vote of no-confidence for the 20 year old. Consistent performer for reserves who needs first-team opportunities or a loan move to progress.


MIDFIELD
LUCAS ** Not quite as bad as some fans would claim he is: undoubtedly a Brazilian international isn't something to be taken lightly and his distribution isn't quite as poor as you'd think. His mistimed tackles and results comparison with Mascherano and Alonso are damning evidence against Lucas. In 7 Prem starts, he has won twice and drawn 5 (just over 1.5 points per game) compared with 40 points gained in Xabi's 19 starts and 29pts from Mascherano's 14 starts ( both average over 2 pts/match). His recent poor tackle at Wigan underlined a belief he concedes too many cheap free kicks and aside from a wonderful assist against a woeful Newcastle in December, he's contributed little creatively this season. If Keane did little to justify his big fee, then the man from Gremio must surely be a goner this summer.

PLESSIS/SPEARING ** Much like Stephen Darby, neither player has had much opportunity to feature, more understandable given the supreme form of Gerrard and Alonso this season.

EL ZHAR *** Pacey and tricky, the Moroccan winger has occasionally featured from the bench and with the departure of Pennant, may be called upon again.

BENAYOUN **** The Israeli is another player who divides opinion but he does boast 2 goals and 3 assists from his 11 starts, a better return than first choice Albert Riera who has featured more. His mazy dribbling can frustrate fans looking for a final ball but is a good impact sub and can play any of the attacking support roles in Rafa's 4-2-3-1 system.


STRIKERS
BABEL *** The flying Dutchman has not featured much this season with only 4 starts. His winning goal was a rare high in a season of frustration after falling behind Riera in selection. May get more game-time in his preferred position as a central striker after Keane's sale. Interestingly, while Keane featured in 8 of Liverpool's 11 draws in all competitions, Babel has appeared in just one stalemate. Having only just turned 22, the Amsterdam rap star needs game-time to progress. His ferocious pace and powerful shot are useful weapons but needs to improve his tactical nous to gain Rafa's favour. Keane's departure will now give him more opportunities to shine.

N'GOG * Was surprisingly preferred to Keane but has impressed in the reserves. Featured 6 times as a sub, most notably for a fruitless hour in the bore draw at Villa. The 19 year old has still only scored two goals so far in his pro career. Not the credentials of a world-beater!

The strength in depth of the squad has regularly been called into question with the press lazily citing Rafa's rotation policy (a practice used by all top clubs) and the relatively smaller budget of Liverpool compared to Chelski and Manure. Fortune with injuries and progress in Europe will have a big impact on our season: the list of back-up options varies enormously in quality. From seasoned internationals like Hyppia, Agger and Benayoun to rookies such as Diego, El Zhar and N'Gog. Added to that the lack of progress shown by big-money younger recruits such as Lucas and Babel mean it is vital that stalwarts such as Gerrard, Alonso and Torres maintain form and fitness through the remainder of the campaign. Central defence and left-back are seemingly the only areas which we possess genuine strength in depth (Hyppia, Agger and Insua). Compare some of our other substitutes with those of our closest rivals is frightening. N'gog and Babel vs Drogba or Tevez? Rafael vs Degen or Darby? Anderson vs Lucas? Diego vs Foster? We need to keep the first team players fit and not expose these weaknesses. Ongoing participation in Europe and the FA Cup, coupled with international commitments could test the depth of the squad to breaking point. Fingers crossed Lady Luck smiles on the Liverbird.

Blog Archive