Sunday 7 February 2010

SEASON SO FAR. A TALE OF TWO THIRDS?

Following a typically fiery Mersey derby, Liverpool's spirits will be high going into Wednesday's trip to the Emirates. The story of the season will be remembered as one of boardroom squabbling and financial crisis off the pitch with beachball bloopers and infinite injuries to key players on the park. Aside from a humbling at home to Reading in the FA Cup, Liverpool's lacklustre luck has taken a turn for the better and the rejuvenated Reds have regained that coveted fourth spot following a much-needed run of clean sheets and put pressure on Aston Villa, Spurs and Man City who all dropped vital points on Saturday. With a third of the season to go, let's look at the facts and figures for the squad with a dozen games remaining in their hunt for that lucrative Champions League spot.

Defensive despair to rock-solid rearguard: a tale of two thirds
Aside from the ever-present and ever-reliable Reina,
the lynchpin of Benitez's footballing philosophy was the Achilles' Heel at the start of this campaign. Only three clean sheets in the first 13 games led to Liverpool falling well off the pace of the title race and even top four contention. As Jamie Carragher succinctly highlighted this weekend, you don't lose games when you don't concede. Obvious but true.

Following a disappointing start to the season, there has been a marked improvement in defence since then with seven clean sheets in the last 12 league games and a scrappy last-gasp strike at Stoke being the only goal conceded by the Reds in the last SEVEN league fixtures.


There are many theories explaining this: anything from zonal marking to Arbeloa's departure and a more offensive approach leaving our defence exposed. Without getting into tactical nuances such as marking systems which are surely better discussed by experienced coaches than fans on blogs, forums or phone-ins, a few key factors have contributed to our inconsistency in defence this season.
Injuries would be the first thing you must talk about. Of the first-choice defence, only Carragher has remained fit throughout this season and has had 4 different partners alongside him (Agger, Skrtel, Krygiakos and Ayala) at various points. It's no coincidence that a settled rearguard over recent weeks has allowed the defenders to forge partnerships and develop an understanding which inevitably leads to better decision-making, understanding and interplay. Fitness is a huge factor in this: Agger's back troubles (he apparently often has to stand on return flights after games) and Skrtel's erratic early-season form probably a result of a long lay-off following serious knee surgery as he has been available for selection in virtually every matchday squad so far.

The emergence of the Greek defender Soto Krygiakos has been viewed as a catalyst to the defensive renaissance and his no-nonsense approach has galvanised a defensive unit lacking continuity, and consequently, confidence.
While the Greek has impressed in recent weeks with his brave, committed displays, question marks remain over his discipline and mobility against top class opposition. However, a lack of physicality and intimidation at the heart of the defence seems to have now been addressed in recent weeks by the Greek's rugged approach to defending demonstrated by his man-of-the-match accolades, notably in a scrappy stalemate at Stoke.

Meanwhile,
Insua has only missed two games at left-back (following his international call-ups) and having turned 21, is learning his trade. His inexperience and lack of physical presence are tempered by his ability to get forward, giving Liverpool much needed natural width on the left in the continued absence of Albert Riera. His lack of height at only 5ft 7in need not be a huge hindrance (puns aside) as many of the top players in his position such as Ashley Cole and Patrice Evra are of a similar stature. Like these contemporaries, Insua has demonstrated his creative capabilities with four assists so far, although there's still room for improvement in both his passing and final ball. The modern day fullback must combine both stability in defence with pace and work-rate to supplement attacks.

At right-back, the arrival of Glen Johnson has certainly provided this balance with dynamic runs from the back helping him to two goals and three assists. However, a couple of muscular niggles and knee ligament injury at Villa Park in December have sidelined the new man and meant aside from a couple of cameos from Philipp Degen, Carragher has filled the breach with Krygiakos forcing his way in at centre-half. With Martin Kelly's dream debut becoming a nightmare as he got injured trying to keep out Lyon's equaliser at Anfield, enough promise was shown to suggest the local lad has a big future. At 6ft 3in, the England U20 international will hopefully get more minutes as an able deputy to Johnson or even starting alongside Johnson in a more advanced role. Equally comfortable in central defence, he provides a solid alternative to Johnson than the cavalier Degen. Despite some impressive cameos, the Swiss international must be surplus to requirements to allow Kelly enough opportunities to develop.

Many fans initially pointed to the departure of the reliable Arbeloa and Johnson's attacking instincts undermining our defensive solidity. It is easy to look at the individual defenders' relative merits but the major factor in defence has been the inconsistency of personnel as the number of clean sheets garnered since being able to sustain a settled back four. Look at Birmingham's brilliant recent record, Alec McLeish has been able to name the same starting 11 for a League record 12 consecutive games (incidentally only losing once in that run, at Stamford Bridge, their only loss in 18 matches).


The defence have kept clean sheets at footballing sides like Aston Villa, Spurs and Man United but seem to struggle to cope with teams who adopt a more aggressive, direct strategy. Compare and contrast the comfortable, composed shut-outs against at Villa Park and at home to Spurs and Man United with the timid attitude and approach at Bolton (Krygiakos' shaky debut), Portsmouth and Sunderland. Critics use this as an opportunity to highlight this as evidence of a negative, counter-attacking approach but table-topping Chelsea's 2-0 snatch-and-grab win over Arsenal would be Exhibit A in the case for the defence.

"Let's talk about the facts..."
Team: 2250 mins played/26 goals conceded = 87mins per goal conceded.
Carragher 24 starts, 2151 mins/24 goals conceded = 90mins/goal.
Insua 23 starts, 2039/21 = 97 mins per goal conceded, 5 assists.
Johnson 17 starts, 1492/19 = 79mins/goal conceded, 2 goals, 3 assists.
Skrtel 14 starts, 1229/17 = 72 mins/conceded, 1 goal.
Agger 12 starts, 1000/8 = 125 mins/conceded.
Aurelio 7 starts, 616/6 = 103 mins, 3 assists.
Krygiakos 7 starts, 653/8 = 82 mins, 1 goal.
Degen 3 starts (only 1 at fullback in 3-1 loss at Fulham), Ayala 1 start (clean sheet v Stoke).


The statistics are no indication of individual performance and quality of opposition and in the context of a season of inconsistency in personnel, and consequently, performance.

Midfield - life after Alonso
The balance in central midfield has been a long-standing talking point. Since the days of Hamann or Sissoko playing alongside Alonso in the middle pushing Steven Gerrard into a wider or more advanced role, many pundits and supporters have questioned the wisdom in Rafa's policy of favouring two holding midfielders to marshal the midfield.
This lack of cover has been exposed with suspensions, injury and international excursions taking its toll on the defensive midfield duo. Staunch defenders of this tactic point to Lucas' attacking ability betraying his depiction as a dull defensive midfielder but nobody would dare to suggest a return of one goal in 2 seasons as a first-team regular despite the tactical shackles he often plays with. He has only managed 5 shots on target and 1 assist all season (for N'Gog's goal against Man U). Last season he scored just once and made two assists: hardly the kind of return from a player mooted as a long-term successor to Steven Gerrard.

His battling displays this season are testament to the confidence shown in him by Rafa and a maturing physique, a weakness he needed to address to survive the transition to the more physical English game. Both Lucas and Mascherano demonstrated their battling qualities in style in Saturday's derby duel and are undoubtedly effective in tough derby games and trips to top-four clubs which can be won and lost in the engine-room. Allied to their defensive rigidity, the South American duo feature among the top passers in the OPTA stats in both most completed passes and % completed.

Critics will point to the lack of penetration and ambition in their distribution, a feature never lacking from Alonso's passing game.
One cannot talk about the midfield without talking about the impact of Alonso's exit and the arrival of Aquilani. Undoubtedly, people will talk about the handling of the Basque's departure but the player wanted to leave and the club got almost triple the price they paid for him. After a marvellous campaign last season, fans understandably rued his sale but it must be remembered that his Liverpool career was marked by injury and inconsistency despite his obvious class. Aquilani's acquisition at a reported £20m (to be paid over several instalments) was heralded as a top-class replacement, if not a like-for-like substitute.

Early medical opinion suggested the Italian's recovery from ankle surgery may keep him out for a month but his first league start did not arrive until the halfway stage of the campaign on Boxing Day v Wolves.
He is yet to play a full 90 minutes in the Premier League and his only full appearance came in the extra-time FA Cup demise v Reading.

However, recent signs are positive: he has made two assists for Dirk Kuyt in his last 2 games against Spurs and Bolton at Anfield. The main concern is Rafa's reluctance to play Aquilani away from home, his only start came at Villa Park in the absence of injured and suspended Javier Mascherano. He has also not featured against more physical opposition as Rafa favours the more combative qualities of the Latin American duo.
Many supporters would advocate replacing Lucas in favour of Aquilani more often to give the centre of midfield a creative look and offer more support to the lone striker. At home to most opposition and away to lower-ranked teams, one would question the necessity of both Lucas and Mascherano as a defensive shield, given their lack of attacking contribution in form of scoring or creating goals. The Italian international has already displayed a greater passing range and creativity than either South American but it remains to be seen whether he can adjust to the physical demands of English football and how he fits into the side alongside Gerrard, as they ideally would occupy an advanced midfield role behind the striker. Only time will tell.

In wide areas, injuries have again hit Liverpool hard. The absence of Albert Riera on the left has robbed Liverpool of natural width on the left (despite cameos from fullbacks Dossena and Aurelio) and has often meant either Yossi Benayoun has played out there ahead of a frustrated and out-of-favour Ryan Babel. Dirk Kuyt continues to divide opinion on the right side but nobody can question the Dutchman's commitment and work ethic wherever he plays. A return of 9 goals is excellent and has been vital in the continuing absence of the talismanic Torres.

"Let's talk about the facts..."
Dirk Kuyt 24 starts/1 sub; 2093mins; 9 gls, 3 assists =
233mins/gl, 697mins/assist
Lucas 23 starts/2 subs; 2075mins;
no goals, 1 assist = 2075mins/assist.
Mascherano 20 starts/2 subs; 1747mins;
no goals, 1 assist = 1747mins/assist.
Gerrard 19 starts/1 sub; 1728mins; 5 gls, 6 assists =
345mins/gl, 288mins/assist.
Benayoun 14 starts/6 subs; 1350mins, 5 goals, 4 assists =
270mins/gl, 338 mins/assist
Riera 9 starts/3 subs; 645 mins; no goals, 4 assists =
161 mins/assist.
Aquilani 4 starts/4 subs; 350 mins; no goals, 2 assists =
175 mins/assist.
Babel 3 starts/9 subs; 340 mins; 2 goals, 1 assist =
170 mins/goal, 340 mins/assist.
Maxi 2 starts/3 subs, Dossena 1 start v Pompey, Spearing 1 start v Sunderland.


Forwards - frustration and freebies
El Nino has been El Lesionado (The Injured) again this season. Persistent concerns over a niggling hernia meant Rafa has had be careful with the Spaniard's fitness, who is likely to face a long season ahead of the World Cup this summer. A lack of funds meant Benitez was severely restricted in his ability to get in fresh talent in attack as N'Gog is still raw and Babel has lacked the work rate and ability to hold the ball up required in Benitez's favoured system of a lone striker with Gerrard slightly deeper in support.

Torres' continued injury malaise has continued with pundits (or ex-footballers paid to state the bleeding obvious) highlighting his absence as evidence of Liverpool being overreliant on Gerrard and Torres to compete. Aside from serious injuries to key men such as Agger, Johnson, Mascherano and Riera, it was conveniently forgotten that Torres played in 6 of Liverpool's 7 league defeats.

Critics highlighted this lack of depth in the summer but Benitez defiantly backed N'Gog, Babel and the departed Voronin to provide adequate cover for Torres. The enigma of Ryan Babel continues to puzzle fans and pundits alike: Benitez publicly backs the player's ability to succeed at the club yet behind the scenes has made the player available at the right price. A common view is Rafa has questioned the player's commitment to the cause since his decision to attend the Beijing Olympics ahead of a key second season at the club.

The Dutchman is still to play successive matches and complete a full 90 minutes in the league this season: something he has only done 3 times in the league in his Liverpool career (A 3-1 win at Bolton on 07/08 and in last season's defeat at Middlesbrough and draw at Wigan). This season, he has started just three games: the defeats at Spurs and Sunderland and then in the 2-2 home draw with Man City, where he hobbled off early on. He is no longer employed in his favoured centre-forward role and it is hard to see him him featuring when everyone is fit.

Despite rumours of a swoop for a forward in January, Benitez kept his hand in his pocket in January as he agreed a Bosman deal with Serbian international striker Milan Jovanovic arriving this summer subject to a medical. Sceptics point to the Serbian's age (29) and lack of top-level experience and see this as a similar signing to Voronin. A decent goal return (52 in 110 games) for the top side in an average Belgian league does not inspire excitement but he is left footed and will hopefully become a useful squad player.

I personally would've spent the cash we've splurged on his signing-on fee on Victor Moses, the precocious but very promising teenage forward who moved to Wigan in the transfer window. At his age, it's no gamble, capped at numerous age levels for England, quick and with an eye for goal - recouping £2.5m for him would be no issue.
He would have no qualms if he's not starting every game and can play in a number of roles in Benitez's system with his pace and work-rate a real asset to a forward line lacking in pace aside from the injury-plagued Torres and out-of-favour Babel, which has contributed to a dismal return of just 12 goals in 12 away matches this season, compared to 25 by Arsenal and Man United.

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